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Problem Analysis and Decision Making

PROGRAM DESCRIPTION


A two-day program that gives participants a practical toolkit for rigorous thinking - from defining the right problem, to analyzing root causes, to choosing among options under uncertainty, to communicating decisions that people will act on. Heavy on structured frameworks, heavier still on practice with real problems participants bring.


Duration: 2 days / 16 hours

Delivery Method: Classroom-based, Virtual Instructor Led Training


TARGET AUDIENCE

Managers, team leads, analysts, and specialists whose work requires breaking down complex problems and making well-reasoned decisions under uncertainty. Relevant across any function.

 

LEARNING OBJECTIVES

By the end of this course, participants will be able to:

·      Recognize the cognitive biases that most often corrupt analysis and decision-making.

·      Define problems precisely using structured problem statements and the 5 Whys.

·      Perform root-cause analysis with Ishikawa diagrams and fault-tree techniques.

·      Apply systems thinking to understand interdependencies and unintended consequences.

·      Match decision frameworks (Cynefin, OODA, RAPID) to the type of decision at hand.

·      Weigh options structurally using decision matrices and weighted criteria.

·      Manage uncertainty through pre-mortems and expected-value reasoning.

·      Communicate decisions through one-page decision memos that drive action.

 

CONCEPTS & THEORIES COVERED

·      Cognitive biases: confirmation, anchoring, availability, survivorship, framing

·      Problem statements (5W1H) and the 5 Whys technique

·      Ishikawa (fishbone) diagrams and fault-tree analysis

·      Systems thinking and causal-loop diagrams

·      Cynefin framework (Clear, Complicated, Complex, Chaotic)

·      OODA loop (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act)

·      RAPID decision-rights framework

·      Decision matrices and weighted scoring

·      Pre-mortem technique

·      Expected-value thinking and probabilistic reasoning

·      The decision memo structure

 

TRAINING METHODOLOGY

Framework walkthroughs with concrete examples; structured labs on real participant problems; cognitive-bias self-assessments; decision simulations; peer red-teaming; role-plays of difficult decision conversations; capstone integrated problem-to-decision brief.

 

ASSESSMENT & FEEDBACK

Pre-test and post-test on frameworks and concepts; daily skill checks on problem-framing and RCA; decision-simulation performance scored against rubric; capstone decision brief peer-reviewed and facilitator-scored; Training Effectiveness Evaluation Form (TEEF).


COURSE OUTLINE


Day 1 - Structured Problem Analysis


Most bad decisions are bad analyses in disguise. Day 1 tightens how you define and diagnose problems.


·      Module 1: Why We Make Bad Decisions

o  Topics Covered:

§ The most common cognitive biases; where they show up at work; how to catch them in yourself.

o  Methods:

§ Self-assessment, case study

·      Module 2: Defining the Problem

o  Topics Covered:

§ Problem-statement structure (5W1H); 5 Whys done right; the difference between symptom and problem.

o  Methods:

§ Framework, live practice

·      Module 3: Root Cause Analysis

o  Topics Covered:

§ Ishikawa diagrams for multi-cause problems; fault-tree analysis for complex systems; when to use each.

o  Methods:

§ RCA workshop

 

·      Module 4: Systems Thinking

o  Topics Covered:

§ Causal-loop diagrams; stocks and flows; unintended consequences; feedback loops.

o  Methods:

§ Case method, mapping

·      Workshop: Diagnose a Real Problem

o  Topics Covered:

§ Bring your own real problem; apply the full Day 1 toolkit; present to peers for challenge.

o  Methods:

§ Applied workshop

 

Day 2 - Decision Making Frameworks


From diagnosis to decision - match the framework to the problem, weigh options rigorously, and communicate to drive action.


·      Module 5: Decision Types & Frameworks

o  Topics Covered:

§ Cynefin (Clear, Complicated, Complex, Chaotic); OODA loop; RAPID; picking the right framework.

o  Methods:

§ Lecture, decision sort

·      Module 6: Weighting Options

o  Topics Covered:

§ Decision matrices; weighted criteria; MCDA basics; common traps (false precision, anchored weights).

o  Methods:

§ Live exercise on real decision

·      Module 7: Managing Uncertainty

o  Topics Covered:

§ Pre-mortem technique; expected-value reasoning; scenario planning; base rates; calibration.

o  Methods:

§ Pre-mortem practice

·      Module 8: Communicating Decisions

o  Topics Covered:

§ One-page decision memo (Question, Evidence, Options, Recommendation, Review); when to verbalize vs write.

o  Methods:

§ Memo drafting

·      Capstone: Problem-to-Decision Brief

o  Topics Covered:

§ Integrated brief from Day 1 problem: RCA + decision framework + weighted options + pre-mortem + memo.

o  Methods:

§ Capstone + peer review

 

KEY TAKEAWAYS

·      A personal cognitive-bias checklist - the three biases you're most prone to, and what to do about them.

·      A practiced 5 Whys and Ishikawa capability on at least one real problem you brought to the program.

·      A Cynefin sense-check you'll run before any major decision - to pick the right framework.

·      A completed decision matrix for a real decision you faced, peer-reviewed for weight assumptions.

·      A pre-mortem run on a decision you're currently considering - risks surfaced before commitment.

·      A one-page decision memo you've drafted, ready to share with stakeholders back at work.

 

TRAINING MATERIALS

Participant workbook; cognitive-bias self-assessment instrument; Ishikawa diagram templates; causal-loop diagram starter kit; Cynefin pocket card; decision matrix template; pre-mortem worksheet; decision memo template with examples.

 

 

DELIVERY OPTIONS

·      Face-to-face — classroom delivery at client or Axentra venue, 8 hours per day.

·      Virtual instructor-led — 2 x 4-hour half-day sessions per day-equivalent.

·      Hybrid / blended — self-paced pre-work, live instructor-led core, manager-led follow-through.

·      Cohort program — delivered in cohorts over 4-12 weeks with spaced practice and peer coaching.

 

EVALUATION & IMPACT

Every delivery includes:

·      Kirkpatrick Level 1 and Level 2 evaluation through TEEF and post-tests.

·      Kirkpatrick Level 3 follow-up at 3-6 months, capturing on-the-job application.

·      Kirkpatrick Level 4 assessment at 12 months, measuring organizational impact.

For customization, bundling, or pricing proposals, contact the Axentra Global Inc training desk. All outlines are subject to refinement following a Learning Needs Analysis (LNA) with the sponsoring client.


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